The New Investment Cycle

By Bernhard Eschweiler 11.2021
— 2 minute read

• Business investment has recovered quickly from the Corona-crisis
• Favorable financial conditions and structural changes could lift business investment further
• This would be good for productivity and economic growth
• The main risk is policy uncertainty

Read More View PDF (~300 KB)

ZAIS and BNP Paribas strike ESG breakthrough with climate change CSO

By Creditflux, Dan Alderson 11.2021
— 2 minute read

"The positive screen selects companies [we believe are] positioned to transition to a low carbon economy."
Andreas Ross, Head of Product Research and Development ZAIS

Read More View PDF (~100 KB)

The Fed is Debt Constrained

By Bernhard Eschweiler 10.2021
— 2 minute read

• The Fed is caught between inflation control and maintaining financial stability
• The result may be an attempt by the Fed to muddle through …
• … and a shorter business cycle

Read More View PDF (~320 KB)

CRE - uneven road to recovery

By Bernhard Eschweiler 08.2021
— 2 minute read

• Corona had a mixed impact on CRE
• We are positive on selected sectors of multi-family, industrial and lodging
• And negative on retail as well as lower-end offices

Read More View PDF (~500 KB)

New Default Risks Emerging

By Bernhard Eschweiler 06.2021
— 2 minute read

• Massive fiscal and monetary support have limited high-yield defaults
• But margin pressures and leverage are new concerns
• The risk is that default rates rise even as the recovery broadens

Read More View PDF (~366 KB)

No Housing Bubble Yet

By Bernhard Eschweiler 04.2021
— 2 minute read

• House price appreciation has reached double digits
• So far, this is a sign of supply shortage amid strong demand…
• …and not a bubble alarm
• Mortgage lending and house construction have not yet reached excessive levels
• Tougher regulation and a different mindset to prevent a déjà-vu

Read More View PDF (~355 KB)

Who's Afraid of Higher Yields?

By Bernhard Eschweiler 03.2021
— 2 minute read

• Inflation fears and rising bond yields temper the recovery euphoria
• Most likely, yields will just normalize as the economy recovers
• The risk is overheating, which creates a dilemma for the Fed
• Private and public debt is too high to swallow much higher yields

Read More View PDF (~412 KB)

Creditflux - Moving fast pays off for hedge funds

By ZAIS Group 03.2021
— 2 minute read

• Credit hedge fund managers which were able to assess rapid fluctuations across markets and react accordingly performed best last year. Conservative positioning in Q1 also helped generate returns.
• Delighted to announce, ZAIS locked in fourth place in the overall 2020 rankings and topped the multi-strategy credit category in the recent Creditflux article "Moving fast pays off for hedge funds".

View PDF (~400 KB)

Consumers to the Rescue

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 02.2021
— 2 minute read

• Consumers are in good financial shape for recovery in 2021
• Yet consumers are prudent and unlikely to spend it all at once
• Public ABS markets already reflect the positive outlook
• But we see good risk rewards in less crowded market segments

Read More View PDF (~433 KB)