It ain't the 1990s

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD, Senior Economic Advisor 10.2026 — 3 minute read

• The AI boom reminds of the dotcom boom but policy conditions are very different
• We see lower bubble risks but also less favorable growth and inflation conditions
• Stagflation plus AI challenges create adverse financial market conditions
• ZAIS’s cautious strategy aims to do well in this market environment

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Conclusions of our AI Experience

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD, Senior Economic Advisor and Sean Lensborn, Chief Technology Officier, ZAIS 05.2026 — 3 minute read

• AI use is spreading rapidly but is not yet widely transformative
• Our experience shows that implementing AI is more complex than replacing humans
• AI is a source of potential financial risks and an opportunity to mitigate these risks

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Some Light for Housing

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 02.2026 — 3 minute read

• New policy initiatives likely to stimulate housing activity...
• ...but not enough to resolve affordability and supply hurdles quickly
• We see opportunities shifting outside core agency mortgage credits

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Not paid to take risk in leveraged loans

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 12.2025 — 3 minute read

With leveraged loan spreads back at pre-COVID lows and default risks elevated, credit differentiation has become harder—making disciplined positioning, such as new ZAIS CLOs at the lower-risk end of the manager universe, increasingly important.

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Private credit aspirations and realities

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 08.2025 — 3 minute read

Private credit has expanded quickly into new sectors, yet the opportunity may be smaller than expected, with currently low systemic risks that could increase in a lending boom.

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ZAIS Publishes its 2024 Sustainability Report

By ZAIS 07.2025 — 4 minute read

ZAIS Group is proud to release our 2024 Sustainability Report, showcasing our continued commitment to responsible investments and sustainability. Read the 2024 report: "ZAIS Sustainability Report 2024 - Investing in our future"

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US Treasury credibility risks

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 05.2025 — 3 minute read

• Policy uncertainty has pushed US Treasury yields higher
• Risks come not only from inflation, the budget deficit and foreign capital
• A confidence crisis could undermine the factors that keep yields so far in check notably Fed Treasury holdings

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Corporate credit outlook amid policy uncertainty

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 03.2025 — 3 minute read

• The business sector and related credit markets are fundamentally in good shape
• Yields still look attractive to us but policy related risks should be avoided
• We like the risk/reward of CLO debt and equity as well as older CMBS vintages

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"Whatever it takes" 2.0

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 03.2025 — 3 minute read

• Germany’s plan to ease off the debt-brake and boost military and infrastructure spending is a paradigm shift …
• … but is it a game changer?
• Much will depend on the ability to forge a powerful defense system in Europe and …
• … push supply-side reforms in Germany to unshackle the economy
• If successful, the fiscal deficit and debt implications are probably manageable …
• … and Bund yields may not rise much further while EUR/USD could rally to 1.20

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US Exceptionalism Revisited

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 11.2024 — 3 minute read

• US exceptionalism has a strong foundation but faces challenges
• Innovation and productivity advantages are unlikely to fade quickly
• But declining openness to trade and immigration is a concern…
• …as well as fiscal proliferation and inflation persistence
• US financial markets and the USD at pole position but victory not assured

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Unlocking home equity values

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 08.2024 — 3 minute read

• US homeowners’ total real estate equity value exceeds $30 trillion…
• …but much of that is locked in due to the rise in interest rates
• Second-lien mortgages allow home-owners to unlock some of that home equity value…
• …and offer attractive opportunities for investors

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Adjusting to Higher for Longer

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 06.2024 — 3 minute read

• Since the 1980s most macro forces pushed US bond yields lower
• This trend has reversed not just because of Fed tightening
• 10-year US Treasury yields to average 4% over the next cycle…
• …with the risk tilting to the upside
• The economic adjustment to higher yields for longer is not yet finished

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Resilient but not invincible

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 04.2024 — 3 minute read

• The US economy avoided recession despite Fed tightening …
• … thanks to low interest-rate sensitivity and fiscal pump priming
• The economy may keep growing even as these supports fade …
• … but it has not become invincible and more cracks are likely to emerge

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The Inflation Trap

By Bernhard Eschweiler, PhD 02.2024 — 3 minute read

• Disinflation progress since late 2022 has been impressive
• But conditions have not sufficiently normalized for 2% inflation to persist
• Inflation may drop to 2% temporarily but at risk to finish 2024 closer to 3%

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